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HORSE RACING STRATEGY
Before you continue reading this article, please remember that there is NO system in the world that can guarantee a winning outcome. So take these systems with a pinch of salt. Most of the systems are fundamentally based upon the Martingale system whereby one doubles up after each loss. As horse racing is a betting form with variable outcomes and not fixed odds, it is possible to win although rarely over time. There are thousands of strategies and each creator claims it is the magic to riches. If that was the case, nobody would have to work. There is no such system. However, there are some systems that are based on past statistics and some mathematical calculations and they are worth mentioning at least. Please remember that don't pay for any system and bear in mind that none of the systems below in any way shape or form guarantee a positive outcome.

Horses are not machines and it is, therefore, pointless reading the form as more often than not, a certain "good" thing is beaten by a so-called "no-hoper". Another tip is that unless you are involved in the racing industry, it is unlikely that you hold better information about which horse is hot and which is not. So if a horse, especially if a horse has never run before, and it is being bet heavily, it is likely that someone has a strong belief it will win or run well. Follow the money. Conversely, if a short-priced favourite drifts out in price, stay away is a good strategy as no money on a horse generally tend to signal that the owners and/or the trainer does not believe that the horse is value at the short odds. Here are some general betting tips (and please note that the strategies described in more detail are merely examples of betting strategies but in no way, shape or form, guarantee winning in the short or long term). At the end of the day, you just have to pray or cross your fingers that the horse you backed wins.

However, if one enjoys a punt on a race, then there are definitely certain things one out to do and not to do. Below are some tips:

  • Never bring more money than you can "afford" to lose.
  • Don't bet on every race. Pick one or two best of the day bets. The more races you bet on during a day, the odds begin to stack against you as the bookmaker has an edge in every race.
  • Try to avoid betting on longshots (big odds) as these tend to come in rather infrequently. The bookmakers love when longshots win.
  • In maidens with horses that have not raced previously or only once or twice, it can pay to follow the money. Once in such a race, a horse was backed in from 100-1 to 8-1 and duly won easily, having been unplaced (nearer last than first) in his only race to that date!
  • A horse that drifts - stay away as there is little stable confidence in the horse's chances of winning.
  • Follow a trainer in form and avoid horses from a trainer whose horses are not running well (could be due to coughing in the yard).
  • Know how to read the form - some horses don't like to run right handed, certain tracks or firm ground. Horses are rated for handicap purposes and sometimes a horse runs in a stakes race against much lower rated horses. Even if his form is not always the best, it could be worthwhile to bet on such a horse, especially if there is money on it.
  • Never chase losses - fastest way to ruin.
  • Try to make contacts with trainers, jockeys and handlers. They can sometimes give strong tips. Once, someone who was in the racing fraternity told me of a horse at 25-1 should be backed decently Each Way. The horse duly won by 8 lengths. Another time, an owner I knew said that his nag of a horse had been specifically trained for a small race. His form was unimpressive to say the least but it was backed down to 7-1 and won doing handsprings.
  • Small low value races tend to have a greater propensity to be fixed. Also, smaller yards and journeyman jockeys are also more prone to be influenced by supplementing a meagre income by influencing the outcome of a race, such as running a horse that is not 100% race fit and then lay the horse on the Betting Exchanges. The big races and top trainers are less likely to be involved in race fixing as their reputation and/or prize funds are worth more than they can gain from fixing a race.
  • Stay away from handicaps - handicap races are theoretically weighted so that all horses should finish within a length of each other - in other words, a toss up as the best horse (top weight) often does not win and the handicap system has been created exactly for this reason.
  • Shop around for the best prices - use the traditional bookmakers and betting exchanges to check if there is an arbitrage opportunity. One of our favourite strategies is to check for horses on the betting exchanges that are overpriced or underpriced in our opinion and then bet or lay them. Once the price moves in our favour, we cancel our bets at favourable prices and thus guarantee us a profit on that race.
  • Follow a horse or stable in form. For example, there was a horse at Kempton that had won its last race by 17 lengths and priced at 12-1 in a big field whilst the favourite was sent off at 4-1. The 12-1 romped home by 6 lengths.
 
THE VALUE STRATEGY
The strategy is based on high value, each-way bets. We are looking to back horses which are between 6/1 and 10/1. Using the guidelines below around 80-90% of the chosen horses should at least place, which at fifth of the odds will show small profits. However experience has taught us that approximately 1 in 5 of these horses will actually win, it is these win bets, (at prices up to 10/1), that will see our profits spiral. Effectively, using this method you will be backing on a week to week basis confident in the knowledge that most of the time your money will be returned, plus a small profit for your trouble, patiently waiting for the big price winners we all hope for. The Specific Strategy does not incur any long losing runs. Here is how the plan operates.

Firstly, we confine our betting to certain types of races, these being non-handicap races with eight, or sometimes nine runners. During the jumps season, chases are preferable to hurdles, but don't exclude hurdles altogether as the plan is still profitable with these types of races. During the flat season do not ever use two-year-old races or sprints (5-6 furlongs). This may seem to leave us very little to play with, but there will still be quite a few races of interest to us each week.

The next thing we look at in the suitable races, is the betting. You can use the morning forecasts in the papers, or wait for the markets to open proper. Look for races which the bookmakers rate as a "two horse race", ie. the first two in the betting should be very shortly priced, usually one will be odds-on and the second horse around 7/4 to 2/1.

Find a race that fulfils all the criteria above and you have a bet!

The horse to back each-way will be the third one in the betting. This will usually be 6/1 or better in races with a two-horse book. This will be the horse that the form experts rate as the third best in the race. Because the odds set by the bookmakers represent each horses chances of winning (not placing), backing the third best horse each-way is the finest value bet you can get in racing. It really is a loophole in the bookmakers way of working. So much so that in races of the kind the strategy is concerned with, the on-course bookmakers are unlikely to accept each-way bets like these. They realise the danger of such bets. The off-course bookmaking chains have to have a general policy and cannot adjust their betting practises for specific races.

Now two notes of caution:

Firstly, when you are selecting the "third" horse to back in races with a two-horse book, always stick to using the third horse in the betting. Don't be tempted to try to pick a bet from the remaining runners. A hard and fast selection method that does not allow room for emotions, hunches or personal judgement will always prove most profitable in the long run.

Secondly, in eight runner races be careful that there are no withdrawals. In eight runner races a place counts as first, second or third, but if there is a withdrawal and less than eight horses start, then only first and second will count as places. This is something to avoid.

 
THE RULE OF THUMB STRATEGY

This is a straightforward system which will throw up good priced winners. The main attribute of this system is that it is quick and simple to find qualifiers.

Choose all races with between 6 and 12 runners. It does not matter whether these races are Handicap or Non Handicap; you back in ALL Races of 6 to 12 runners.

To be a selection a horse must have been placed (first, second, third or fourth) at least four times in it's last six outings and on at least one of these occasions it must have won.

  • It must have run a minimum of twice in the present season and must have been placed in one of those two races.
  • It must be either a course or a distance winner or both.
  • It must be trained by one of the leading ten trainers at the course.

When all rules are satisfied you have the system's selection.

 
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